War and UK Holiday Costs: 60+ Statistics (2026)

How is the war premium defined and measured?

Each comparison starts on the last working day before the first strikes and runs to the latest published figure. The same method is used for every currency, price and index.

A move after a baseline date is not proof the war caused it. Interest rates, UK fiscal events and the strength of the dollar also move exchange rates.

How Has the Pound Moved Since the Iran War Began?

The pound has risen against the euro since the Iran war started, from €1.1412 on 27 February 2026 to €1.1937 on 22 October 2026, a gain of 4.6%, according to the European Central Bank. It has been flat against the dollar over the same period, at $1.3376 against $1.3471.

The move has been gradual rather than a spike. The euro rate on 27 February 2026 was the lowest of the whole period since, and the pound's best level against the euro since the war began is today's.

Source: ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates, sterling cross rates calculated by Travel FX (22 Oct 2026). The Bank of England's daily spot rate for 27 February 2026 (€1.1386, $1.3443, 59.08 lira, 41.70 baht) agrees with the ECB figures to within 0.3% (Bank of England, 27 Feb 2026).

Two currencies are worth reading together. The baht has gained 7.8% since the war began, which matters because Thailand is a long haul route that used to run through Gulf hubs. The dollar is the only major holiday currency to have moved against UK travellers, and by less than 1%.

Calculation: €3,000 of holiday spending cost £2,628.81 at the 27 February rate and £2,513.19 now, a difference of £115.62. A 100,000 baht trip cost £2,388.00 then and £2,215.49 now, a difference of £172.51.

What Does £1,000 Buy Now Compared With Before Each War?

£1,000 buys €1,194 today. That is €53 more than on 27 February 2026 (€1,141) and €4 less than on 23 February 2022 (€1,198), according to the ECB. The same £1,000 buys $1,338, which is $9 less than before the Iran war and $21 less than before the Ukraine invasion.

Source: ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates (23 Feb 2022, 27 Feb 2026, 22 Oct 2026). ‡ The dirham is derived from the US dollar rate and the official peg of 3.6725 dirhams to the dollar.

A higher number means the pound goes further. Read the right hand columns as the change in what £1,000 buys, not as a price.

The lira row needs care. A pound buys 253% more lira than in February 2022, but Turkish consumer prices rose far more than that over the same period (see the Turkey section below). More lira per pound is not the same as a cheaper holiday.

What Happened to the Pound After Russia Invaded Ukraine?

The pound fell sharply in the first year after the invasion on 24 February 2022, then recovered most of the euro loss. Against the dollar it dropped from $1.3592 on 23 February 2022 to $1.0596 on 28 September 2022, a fall of 22.0%, according to the ECB. Against the euro it fell from €1.1981 to €1.1078 on the same day, down 7.5%.

Source: ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates, sterling cross rates calculated by Travel FX. Percentages show the change in what £1 buys against 23 Feb 2022.

The same checkpoints for the Iran war (table above) show a much smaller first year effect: after one month £1 bought 1.0% more euros and 1.4% fewer dollars, and after six months 2.2% more euros and 0.8% more dollars.

Exchange rates respond to many things at once, including interest rate decisions, UK fiscal announcements and the strength of the dollar. This page reports what happened to the rate after each baseline date. It does not claim the wars alone caused the moves.

Which Currencies Have Moved in a UK Traveller's Favour?

Twenty of the 29 currencies for which the ECB publishes reference rates (the euro plus 28 others) are up against the pound since the Iran war began, according to Travel FX's calculation from the ECB series. Nine are flat or down.

Source: ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates (27 Feb 2026 and 22 Oct 2026), calculated by Travel FX.

Since the Ukraine invasion the picture is wider and more uneven: 17 of the 29 are up and 12 are down. The Japanese yen (up 34.3%), Indian rupee (up 25.1%) and Indonesian rupiah (up 24.0%) have gained most, and the Swiss franc (down 12.0%) and Mexican peso (down 8.6%) have fallen most.

How Much Has Jet Fuel Risen?

US Gulf Coast jet fuel rose from $2.428 a gallon on 27 February 2026 to $4.632 on 20 October 2026, an increase of 91%, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). After the 2022 invasion it rose 90% to a peak of $5.066 on 28 April 2022.

Brent fell below its February 2026 level in July 2026 and has since climbed back, so the 2026 pattern has two peaks rather than one. Jet fuel's highest point in the Iran war came in September, not in the spring shock. In dollars per gallon the 2026 jet fuel peak is below 2022's, although Brent's 2026 peak is higher.

Calculation: Brent rose 94% from the last day before the war to the April 2026 peak ($138.21 / $71.32) and is 62% above that day now. After the invasion in 2022 it rose 34% to the peak ($133.18 / $99.29).

Fuel is now a bigger share of what airlines spend. IATA's June 2026 outlook puts jet fuel at 31.4% of airline operating costs in 2026, up from 25.4% in 2025, with the industry fuel bill rising from $252bn to $350bn. It assumes jet fuel averages $152 a barrel in 2026, against $90 in 2025 and the $88 it had assumed before the war.

Have UK Airfares Gone Up Because of the Wars?

Yes after the Ukraine invasion, much less clearly after the Iran outbreak. ONS data shows UK airfares rose 89% between February and December 2022 (index 111.4 to 211.1). In 2026 airfares were up 14.5% year on year in March but down 8.0% year on year in August, and September's rate was 3.9%.

Airfares are highly seasonal, so the useful comparison is the same months in other years. The August 2026 index (215.1) is below August 2025 (233.8) and August 2024 (242.2). From February to September the index rose 23.5% in 2026 and 23.3% in 2025, so the usual summer pattern accounts for most of the 2026 rise. ONS says air fares fell 19.5% between August and September 2026, against a fall of 28.8% a year earlier, and confirms all flight prices in the September release were collected after the conflict began on 28 February 2026.

Airlines report the same mixed picture. Ryanair said its average fares fell 6% in April to June 2026 even as jet fuel doubled to $150 a barrel †, while easyJet is removing 700,000 winter seats (1.4 million in total from October 2026 to March 2027) †. British Airways' chief executive said fares "have to go up" if fuel stays high †. IATA still expects passenger ticket yields to rise 7% across 2026.

How Have Airspace Closures Changed Flights?

Eurocontrol's 31 March 2026 analysis found 59% fewer flights between Europe and the Middle East, about 1,200 a day below the normal 2,000. It counted 1,150 flights a day rerouted to avoid the conflict area and closed airspace, flying an extra 206,000 km a day and burning 602 extra tonnes of fuel.

Eurocontrol's later forecast says the losses were concentrated in March to May and that Middle East traffic was back near 2025 levels by July and August. It adds that "it is impossible to predict when currently restricted airspaces will be fully reopened" †.

The 2022 closure of Russian airspace added distance to Europe to Asia routes that still shows in the data. Eurocontrol found Helsinki to Seoul went from about 8.5 hours to 12 hours, and Helsinki to Singapore added 1,400 km (1.25 hours) in 2022. By 2025 a Helsinki to Tokyo flight was about 3,550 km longer. These are Finnish departures, the clearest published examples; Travel FX has not found a primary source with equivalent UK departure figures (see Data Gaps).

How Much Have Prices Risen in Popular UK Holiday Destinations?

Prices have risen across Europe since February 2026, but by less than after the Ukraine invasion. Euro area inflation rose from 1.9% in February 2026 to 3.8% in September 2026, according to Eurostat. After the invasion it peaked at 10.6% in October 2022.

Source: Eurostat harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), annual rate of change (final data to September 2026, released 16 October 2026).

Headline inflation is only a proxy for what a visitor pays. The next tables use the parts of the index that tourists meet: restaurants and cafes, and accommodation.

What Does Eating Out Cost a UK Visitor in Pounds?

Restaurant and cafe prices in Spain have risen 25.7% in euros since February 2022, which is 28.7% in pounds because £1 buys 2.4% fewer euros on average than then. Since February 2026 the rise in euros is 2.2% and in pounds only 0.8%, because sterling has strengthened.

Source: Eurostat HICP, food and beverage serving services (restaurants and cafes), index 2015=100 for February 2022, February 2026 and September 2026; ECB monthly average reference rates for the same months. Sterling figures calculated by Travel FX as (1 + local price change) divided by (1 + change in local currency per pound), minus 1.

Our working for Spain: the restaurant and cafe index rose from 112.25 (February 2022) to 141.10 (September 2026), up 25.7%. The monthly average rate fell from €1.1935 to €1.1653 per pound, down 2.4%. 1.257 divided by 0.976 is 1.287, so 28.7% in pounds. For February to September 2026 the index rose from 138.02 to 141.10 (2.2%) while the rate rose from €1.1490 to €1.1653 (1.4%), so 1.022 divided by 1.014 gives 0.8%.

The Ukraine period is mostly an inflation story across Europe, with the euro slightly weaker against sterling than in 2022. The Iran period is mostly a currency story: a stronger pound has absorbed most of the local price rise in every euro country, and in France and Poland has turned it into a small fall.

The prices measured here are what everyone pays in the country, not tourist only prices. Eurostat's HICP uses the domestic concept, so it includes spending by visitors and residents alike.

Are Hotels and Accommodation More Expensive?

Accommodation prices in Spain were 10.8% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, up from 8.3% in February, according to Eurostat. Spain's own hotel price index, from the national statistics office INE, shows 6.3% in August 2026 against 3.9% in February.

Greece needs a caveat. Eurostat's Greek accommodation series moved from 0.1% in February to 14.0% in August and 29.5% in September 2026. It is volatile and may be revised; the Post Office's Greek resort baskets rose by 6.4% to 8.2% over the same period, with the exception of Crete.

Accommodation prices are seasonal, so only same month comparisons are valid. In the United States, lodging away from home was up 4.4% year on year in September 2026 against down 1.1% in February 2026 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics).

What Do Holiday Baskets Show?

Prices for a standard basket of holiday items rose in some resorts and fell in others. The Post Office Family Holiday Report 2026 compared July 2026 prices with July 2025 for the same 10 items (coffee, beer, cola, wine, water, suncream, repellent, children's snacks, a lunch for two and a family meal) in 16 resorts surveyed in both years.

Source: Post Office Travel Money with TUI, Family Holiday Report 2026 (July 2026 prices, converted at July 2026 exchange rates). Resorts new in 2026 are not shown.

Only four of the 16 resorts surveyed in both years rose by more than 20%, eight rose by less than 10% and four fell, according to the report. The Post Office said sterling's strength "helped to reduce the level of local price rises for British visitors" and that the war in the Middle East is causing "widespread cost of living pressures". The baskets are in pounds, so they mix local price changes and the exchange rate.

For winter sun, the Post Office's September 2026 eight item basket (coffee, beer, soft drink, wine, water, suncream, repellent and a three course meal for two) ranges from £58.24 in Cape Town to £144.15 in Tobago. Phuket is £76.39, the Algarve £82.35, the Costa del Sol £83.58 and Tenerife £87.46. Time Out, reporting the same research, says prices fell in a third of the 24 destinations over the six months to September and rose by less than 5% in a further nine.

Is Turkey Cheaper for UK Visitors Than Before the Ukraine War?

Not on the evidence. A pound buys 253% more lira than in February 2022, but Turkish consumer prices rose 447% over the same period, so goods and services cost more in pounds than they did. Eurostat's Turkish HICP index is up 446.7% from February 2022 to September 2026, and its restaurant and cafe index is up 684.0%.

Over the Iran war period alone the lira has fallen nearly as fast as Turkish restaurant prices have risen (9.9% against 13.6%), which is why the rise in pounds is only 3.3%.

What About Thailand, Dubai, the United States and Mexico?

Thailand's consumer prices rose 2.82% year on year in September 2026 after falling 0.88% in February, driven by fuel. Foreign tourist arrivals were down 3.12% year on year to 5 September, at 21.28 million †. Hotel prices were among the items that fell in August.

Dubai's airfares fell 23.44% and holiday packages 12.47% between August and September 2026 †.

Are UK Travellers Still Going Abroad?

UK demand for Europe has held up. Spain's national statistics office counted more than 2.4 million UK tourists in August 2026, up 9.3% on a year earlier, and more than 13.9 million in January to August, up 5.4%. ABTA's May 2026 survey of 2,000 UK adults found 84% of those planning trips abroad in the next 12 months intend to visit Europe, with Spain (38%), Italy (23%), France (19%) and Greece (18%) named most often.

The Post Office found almost two thirds of UK families surveyed in June 2026 still intend to holiday abroad in the next 12 months. The last full year of data from ONS is 2025: 99.9 million visits abroad by UK residents, spending £86.2bn, with 19.1 million visits to Spain †. ONS has not yet published 2026 outbound figures.

How Wide Have Exchange Rate Swings Been Since Each War Began?

The pound has moved within a wide range against every major holiday currency since the Iran war began, and the range after the Ukraine invasion was wider still.

Euro. The pound's range against the euro since 27 February 2026 is €1.1412 to €1.1937, a spread of 4.6%, according to the ECB. On €3,000 of spending that is £115.62 between the lowest and highest rate. The rate rose in steps, from €1.1412 at the end of February to €1.1701 at the end of September and €1.1937 on 22 October.

US dollar. The range since 27 February 2026 is $1.3160 (25 June) to $1.3656 (21 August), a spread of 3.8%, worth £55.20 on $2,000 of spending.

After the Ukraine invasion. The pound fell 22.0% against the dollar by 28 September 2022 and was still 11.9% below its pre invasion level at the 12 month mark (24 February 2023).

Where the pound has gained most. Since the Iran war began the pound has gained most against the lira, zloty, peso and baht. In sterling terms, eating out in France and Poland is cheaper than in February, in Spain, Italy and Czechia it is roughly flat, and in Hungary it is 5.2% dearer. Package, hotel and flight prices vary much more than restaurant prices (see above).

Source: ECB euro foreign exchange reference rates, sterling cross rates calculated by Travel FX; Eurostat HICP and ECB monthly average rates for the sterling adjusted restaurant prices. Period: 27 Feb 2026 to 22 Oct 2026, and 23 Feb 2022 to 24 Feb 2023.

How to Read These Numbers

• Baselines. Ukraine: 23 February 2022, the last ECB reference rate before the invasion of 24 February 2022. Iran: 27 February 2026, the last reference rate before strikes began on 28 February 2026. "Latest" is 22 October 2026 for currencies, 20 October for EIA fuel prices and September 2026 for price indices. The same method is used for every comparison.

• Reference rates. ECB reference rates are fixed once a day at about 14:15 CET and are not rates available to customers. Sterling cross rates are calculated as units of currency per euro divided by pounds per euro. The Bank of England spot rates, published at a different time of day, differ by up to 0.3%.

• Higher number means the pound goes further. Every currency figure shows units of foreign currency per £1. A rise is good for a UK traveller buying that currency.

• Dirham and Barbados dollar. The ECB does not publish these. They are derived from the US dollar rate and the official pegs (3.6725 and 2.00 to the dollar), so they move exactly with the dollar.

• Spot versus futures. EIA's Brent and jet fuel figures are spot prices. IATA and Eurocontrol figures are annual averages or weekly prices and are not interchangeable.

• Seasonality. ONS airfares, Eurostat accommodation and package holiday series are seasonal. Compare the same month in different years, not February with September.

• Headline versus tourist prices. Eurostat HICP measures prices paid in a country by everyone, residents and tourists alike. It is a proxy for what a visitor meets, not a tourist only index.

• Sterling adjusted prices. These combine two published series (local prices, exchange rate) and are Travel FX calculations, not figures any agency has published.

• Post Office baskets. These are priced in pounds, so a change mixes local prices and the exchange rate. They compare July 2026 with July 2025, not with the war baselines.

• Causation. A move after a baseline date is not necessarily caused by the war. The ECB and the Post Office both say the Middle East war is adding to price pressures; no source attributes specific hotel or restaurant price changes to either war.

• † marks figures read on a secondary outlet quoting the official body, or on a page that could only be read as a summary, so the exact wording should be checked at the source before publication: Ryanair, easyJet and British Airways statements, Eurocontrol's October 2026 forecast, the PA/Cirium Gulf figures, Khaleej Times, Thailand arrivals, Dubai, Mexico, Egypt, TurkStat via Anews, and the Eurostat Greek accommodation series.

Conclusion

The two wars cost UK travellers in different ways. The Ukraine invasion was a currency shock first: the pound lost 22% against the dollar within seven months, and European prices then rose by a quarter or more over four years. The Iran war has so far been a fuel and flight shock, with jet fuel up 91% and Gulf airspace closed for weeks, but the pound has gained against most holiday currencies and has absorbed much of the rise in restaurant prices across Europe.

The cost of a holiday depends on where it is, when it is booked and when the money is bought. Spain and Greece are dearer in euros than in February; in pounds the difference is small. Turkey's lira buys more per pound than ever, and its prices have risen faster still. The data will be refreshed as new figures are published.